Salem, OR – Today, Governor Tina Kotek announced the release of the 2026 Tariff Impact Analysis co-authored by the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), the Oregon Employment Department (OED), and Business Oregon. This report highlights the tangible impacts the Trump administration’s chaotic tariff policies have had on Oregon businesses and commerce, including a 17% reduction in exports and an estimated loss of $442 million in revenue. The full Tariff Impact Analysis can be found here. An executive summary of the report can be found here.
"It’s critical that Oregonians know exactly how Trump’s tariff taxes are impacting our economy," Governor Kotek said. "As a coastal state with major ports, we move billions of dollars’ worth of seafood, agricultural products, and manufactured goods across the globe. Our ports also support thousands of good-paying jobs for Oregon families. As President Trump continues to double down on reckless trade policy, my focus is on driving down costs for Oregonians and ensuring businesses can continue to flourish here."
In 2025, the United States experienced a sudden and dramatic shift in trade policy following the Trump administration’s rollout of wide-ranging tariffs — known as the “Liberation Day” tariffs — coupled with subsequent retaliatory measures from major trading partners. Oregon, as one of the nation’s most trade-dependent states, was disproportionately affected. In response to Governor Kotek’s directive, Oregon’s state agencies conducted a retrospective analysis using economic data, business surveys, and regional insights to evaluate the effects of the 2025–2026 tariff environment on Oregon’s businesses, workers, state agencies, and state finances.
Oregon importers paid nearly $3 billion in tariffs between March and December 2025, as the state’s effective tariff rate climbed from around 2% in March to about 15% by fall. Imports surged early in the year – partly from firms front-loading purchases – but exports collapsed. This export contraction likely reduced state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by more than a full percentage point relative to the national trend. Relative to other high-trade-exposure states, Oregon experienced sharper slowdowns in GDP growth, employment, and income following implementation of the Trump Administration’s 2025 tariff regime.
"Changing tariff rates have upended supply chains, stoked price pressures, and impaired business confidence," Carl Riccadonna, the state's chief economist, said. "The broad majority of Oregon and Oregon-based business have witnessed the economic costs of tariffs relatively quickly. Meanwhile, the expected benefits—such as bringing supply chains back to the U.S. and boosting related employment—have not materialized in a measurable way."
This new report comes as President Trump renews his commitment to sweeping tariffs on 60 trading partners, including a new 50% tariff on targeted imports from Canada.