Carl Riccadonna, state chief economist and Michael Kennedy, senior economist of the Department of Administrative Services (DAS) Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), presented the latest economic outlook and revenue forecast to the legislative committee on finance and revenue. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to public review and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process.
What is different about this forecast?
The Office of Economic Analysis provides quarterly forecasts for the state of Oregon’s major revenue sources, including all sources contributing to the General Fund (Personal and Corporate Income Tax, etc.), Lottery and the Corporate Activity Tax. The Q4-December economic outlook, while complicated by a lack of government economic statistics resulting from the federal government shutdown, reflects continued economic resilience both nationally and within the state. Recession risks appear to be diminishing, and the forecasts for 2026 has improved modestly.
Revenue Forecast
The revenue forecast for 2025-27 has increased $309.5 million, due largely to recent strength in Corporate Income Tax receipts. Corporate Income Tax exhibits significant quarter-to-quarter volatility, making it one of the more difficult revenue streams to forecast. For all other revenues, mild improvement in the economic landscape and outlook translate into a slight uptick in expected receipts for the biennium. The projected General Fund ending balance has improved, from a deficit of $372.7 million to a deficit of $63.1 million from last quarter.
About the Office of Economic Analysis
The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis within the Department of Administrative Services and provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis and recent forecasts, please visit the OEA website.
