Salem, OR – Carl Riccadonna, state chief economist and Michael Kennedy, senior economist of the Department of Administrative Services (DAS), presented the latest economic outlook and revenue forecast to a joint meeting of the Oregon Legislative Revenue Committees. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to public review and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process.

What is different about this forecast?

The Office of Economic Analysis provides quarterly forecasts for the State of Oregon’s major revenue sources, including all sources contributing to the General Fund (Personal and Corporate Income Tax, etc.), Lottery and the Corporate Activity Tax. In May of odd years, OEA’s revenue forecast establishes the resource levels for the next biennium’s adopted budget.

The March 2025 economic outlook is much like was presented in December 2024, with optimism toward a “soft landing” scenario but with widening variability in risk factors. Key points include:

• State economy is increasingly bound to national trends for growth and inflation

• Heightened sensitivity to trade tensions given geography and industry composition

• Labor conditions are healthy, but hiring has sputtered and breadth of job creation is weak

• Magnitude of demographic rebound will be critical to growth outcome

Revenue Forecast

The March revenue forecast projects the 2023-25 General Fund ending balance to be $2.59 billion, with revenues decreasing by $89 million and appropriations up $110 million since the December forecast.

In the 2025-27 biennium, General Fund available resources are forecast to increase by $350 million, and revenues increasing by $551 million from the December forecast. This results in a total of $38.2 billion projected available resources.

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis within the Department of Administrative Services and provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis and recent forecasts visit https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/index.aspx.

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